Cypher Page #4

You're given phoney

assignments, phoney identities.

You think your pen

is a transmitting device,

another guest thinks it's

his tie clip or her watch.

The whole thing is just a ploy

to keep you all distracted,

to not realize what's really going on.

What is really going on?

If you want answers, take the shot.

When you're inside the

room, act as you always act.

Order the mineral water. Drink it.

Don't make them suspicious.

The shot we gave you should protect you.

It should protect? What'd

you mean? What if it doesn't?

Listen to me carefully.

Whatever happens in that room,

show no reaction, no

emotion, no surprise.

No matter what you see, do not move.

What will I see?

- Who sent you?

- A friend.

I don't have any friends.

- When will I see you again?

- Soon.

I promise.

There are several points of interest

here. First of all, the fact, that

by an impressive margin,

new home purchases

took most of the brunt of that decline.

By this I mean that sales of older homes

are done on an individual basis

where there's considerably

more room for negotiation.

Therefore, in those sales

we're more likely to find

that the official rise in

mortgage rates has been offset

somewhat by the ...rates of

return on high tech investment,

which led to a surge in

business capital spending

and significantly increased the

underlying growth rate of productivity.

The capitalization of these

higher than expected returns

boosted equity prices

generally beyond even that expected

by the enhanced rise in real incomes.

The elevated level of light

vehicle sales, for example,

has put more vehicles on the road

than the industry could sustain.

And even though demand for

the number of high tech products

was doubling or tripling annually,

in many cases new supply

was coming on ever faster.

Overall capacity in high

tech manufacturing industries

rose nearly 50 percent last year,

well in excess of its

rapid rate of increase.

Accordingly the slowdown in the economy that

began in the middle of last year intensified,

perhaps even to the point of growth

stalling out around the turn of the year.

As the economy slowed,

equity prices fell,

especially in the high tech sector,

where previous high evaluations

were being re-evaluated,

resulting in significant

losses in some investors.

Clearly some slowing in the

pace of spending was necessary,

if the economy was to progress along

balanced and sustainable growth.

With the process likely to intensify

with the rise in the cost of energy

that has strained business

and household purchasing power,

purchases of durable

goods and investment

in capital equipment

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