The Age of Consequences Page #2

[REPORTER]

PROFESSOR RICHARD SEAGER

SAYS THA A THREE-YEAR DROUGH PLAYED A HUGE ROLE

IN PUSHING THE SYRIAN PEOPLE

INTO AN ALL-OUT CIVIL WAR.

THIS IS THE FIRST STUDY

THAT QUANTITATIVELY

DRAWS A CONNECTION

BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE

AND THE ONSE OF A CONFLICT.

SYRIA BEGAN TO EXPERIENCE

A SERIOUS MULTI-YEAR DROUGH IN THE WINTER OF 2006, 2007.

AND THAT DROUGHT LASTED

FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE YEARS.

FARMING FAMILIES JUS CANNOT SURVIVE ON THE LAND

WHEN A DROUGH LASTS THAT LONG.

[CHENEY]

AS PEOPLE TRY TO FEED

THEIR FAMILIES AND CAN'T,

THEY'VE GOT TO GO SOMEWHERE.

[BREEN]

THE DROUGHT CAUSED

A LARGE NUMBER:

OF YOUNG SYRIAN:

MEN IN PARTICULAR

TO LEAVE FARMLAND

AND GO TO THE CITIES.

[CHENEY]

DAMASCUS, ALEPPO,

ONE AND A HALF PLUS

MILLION PEOPLE HAD TO MOVE.

[BREEN]

THAT HAS A MAJOR

DESTABILIZING IMPAC WHEN PEOPLE HAVE

TO PICK UP AND LEAVE

WHETHER IT'S BECAUSE OF CONFLIC OR RESOURCE SCARCITY.

AS ANYONE CAN TELL YOU,

A BUNCH OF UNEMPLOYED

YOUNG MEN IN A MAJOR CITY

IS NOT A RECIPE:

FOR SOCIAL STABILITY.

[SEAGER]

NOW SYRIA HAD ALREADY ABSORBED

ABOUT A MILLION:

AND A HALF REFUGEES

FROM IRAQ WHO WERE FLEEING

THE CIVIL WAR THERE.

THOSE NUMBERS COMBINED SUCH

THAT THE POPULATION

OF SYRIAN CITIES

GREW BY ABOUT 30% OR MORE.

THAT RATE OF MIGRATION

IS ABSOLUTELY CATASTROPHIC.

IT DROVE FOOD PRICES UP,

IT DROVE APARTMENT PRICES UP,

STRAINED THE HEALTH SYSTEM,

ALL LEADING TO THE KINDS

OF CONDITIONS OF DISCONTEN TO THE ALL-OUT CIVIL WAR

THAT IS STILL GOING ON NOW.

WHEN WE ANALYZED ALL

THE PRECIPITATION DATA

WE COULD GET,

WE FOUND THAT WE JUS COULDN'T ATTRIBUTE

SUCH A LONG AND SERIOUS DROUGH TO NATURAL CLIMATE

VARIABILITY ALONE.

[PARENTI]

THAT PARTICULAR DROUGHT WAS

TWO TO THREE TIMES MORE LIKELY

BECAUSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE.

[SEAGER]

WE OF COURSE DID NOT SAY

DROUGHT WAS THE SOLE CAUSE

OF THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR.

IT'S THE CONFLUENCE

OF MULTIPLE CAUSES COMING IN,

WITH CLIMATE:

BEING ONE OF THEM.

[FEMIA]

CLIMATE CHANGE:

IS ALL ABOUT THE WATER.

SO WE HAVE CLIMATE CHANGE

LEADING TO RAINFALL VARIABILITY.

WE DON'T NECESSARILY KNOW

WHEN THE WATER IS GONNA COME.

WE CAN'T PREDIC THAT WE'RE GONNA GE THE SAME AMOUNT OF WATER

AS WE USED TO GET,

AND THAT IS GOING TO HAVE

A HUGE IMPAC ON WHETHER OR NO WE CAN GROW FOOD.

SO IN THE CASE OF SYRIA,

WE'RE TALKING ABOU HOW CLIMATE CHANGE

IMPACTS WATER RESOURCES,

HOW THAT IMPACTS FOOD RESOURCES,

AND WHAT THAT MEANS

FOR WHAT PEOPLE DO FOR A LIVING,

WHETHER IT'S FARM,

HERD ANIMALS,

OR JOIN A TERRORIS ORGANIZATION.

[REPORTER]

THIS IS A CITY DRAPED IN BLACK

AND A CITY RAGING WITH ANGER.

[REPORTER]

THIS IS ISIS,

THE ISLAMIC STATE

OF IRAQ AND SYRIA.

[CHENEY]

AS PEOPLE MOVED:

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