Freakonomics

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So I wanna sell my home

and I put on the market for 300,000 dollars

It's a lovely home you have

I'm the agent

Alright so let me start over, that was my ... i'm sorry

Alright I wanna sell my home

I put on the market for 300,000 dollars

I get an offer today for $290k

The question is if I wait a week

and get the offer for the full $300k

Would I rather wait that week and get the full price?

Or take the offer today for $290k

Ah you want to take it now

I'll be the real estate agent

I'm telling you want to take it right now because

because a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush...

The market is starting to really soften up

with these things you just can never tell

If you get a good offer, I really think it's the right thing to take it

And I'm not speaking out of self-interest cuz I'm the real estate agent

and our interests are aligned

cuz I'm getting a commission out of your sales

I want you to get as much as you can for this house

I really do

When you think about the incentives

that the current contract set up

between the home seller and the agent

representing them, they are not well alligned

But can you ever prove that?

Interestingly, if you look at the sales data on real estate agent own homes

It's not their client's home when they sell their own homes

They get more money than they sell the same home for their client

Now why would that be?

What we find in the data is that agent hold out for better price

and leave their own homes on the market for longer

an average for 10 days longer

But when it comes to your house

The agent has the incentive to sell right away

Why? Cuz sometimes that $10k into his or her pocket

-Only $150 -I only get $150

Because if you take that $10k that goes to him

Half goes to the buyer's real estate agent

So I get half of that six percent

But then I have to kick back half of that to my agency

So I only get one and a half percents

So really, in order for me to help him gets the extra $10k

I personally only gets $150

But I have to work for an extra week

I have to buy all the marketing

I could be off to another client trying to get another

whole commission on another house

So I have a strong incentive to say to him this is a great offer

It's the best offer you can get

I really think you should take it

So no matter what the real estate agency says

I would rather wait a week

and pick up the extra $10k

The agent wouldn't

It's not that real estate agents are bad

It's just that they're human beings and human beings repsond to incentives

If there's only one element

that I say is that almost everything we do

is the idea that incentives matter

and if you can figure out what people's incentives are

you have a good chance to guessing how they're gonna pay it

New prents look at successful families and successful parents

and they just want to copy them and so they try to do the things

they think that they did to get their families so smart

and good and whatever

which is really just a ... can be a bad mistake of correlation cuase isolagi

You're gonna take your kid to ... you know ... every mommy and me music class

and you gonna take him to the museum

and start looking at all the dreaken roman sculptures

you probably already playing mozart in the worm to get the brain really stimulated

and it turns out; that the best that we can tell

from looking at data of actual parents and children along these dimensions

that that stuffs don't really matters

that it just dones't make your child...better

so it might make you happier, might even

make 'em happier, might also make 'em miserable

but it turns out that those are not causo-elements

I always said you can teach a kid just as much as in a grocery store

you can as in a museum, maybe more

My entire academic life

has been devoted to figuring out tricky ways to get a cause-eality

because the world just doesn't offer you a cause-eality

okay, what you see in the world is correlation

So what the world gives you is - things are moving together or they aren't

But to be useful, you need to dive down

be able to strip away what's causing what, what's not causing what

The data we looked at

suggests that, by the time you actually have a kid

most of the choices that you make will make you a good parent

you've already made them.

So if you go to the bookstore and buy 10 parenting books,

It's probably not really gonna help the kid that much

But the fact is that you are the kind of person

who as a parent cares enough to buy 10 parenting books even if you dont' read 'em.

That probably means you are a pretty good parent

Just don't think the books are gonna have a magic effect

Ah parents, we wanna believe so much that everything we do

is going to make a difference in our children's lives.

What they eat, where they go to school, who they hang out with

But before any of that takes place,

parents are confronted wth the one single ominous decision

that could shape the entirety of their children's future

what is going to be their name?!

These days, there's an entire industry devoted to naming your baby.

And business is booming

There's magazines, books, websites

There's even high profile baby naming experts.

I'm a baby name expert

I study names, I ask the parents how they choose names for their children

and I look at how names are changing,

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